A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
